Brent Ciliano, First Citizens Chief Investment Officer, and Phillip Neuhart, First Citizens Director of Market and Economic Research, provide timely insights and in-depth commentaries on the issues impacting the economy and the markets.
Making Sense: In Brief video
Making Sense: In Brief
The week ahead for markets and the economy
Monday, June 16, 2025
Blake: Last week inflation surprised to the downside, with the consumer and producer price indices coming in lower than almost all market expectations. Investors also continue to monitor the latest developments on tax and tariff policy, and we also saw the reintroduction of geopolitical risk to the outlook.
This week, the main event on investors' minds will be the June Federal Reserve meeting, wrapping up on Wednesday. Markets are not expecting any interest rate changes at this meeting, and the Federal Reserve has indicated that it's on hold as it monitors the incoming data and waits for the economic picture to become somewhat clearer.
For this month's meeting, markets will be watching two things. First, is the Fed content with the decent employment and inflation data that have come in through May? Or are policymakers putting more weight on their forecasts, which, as we'll see in their quarterly dot plot projections, might show a worsening in these data?
Second, every 5 years, the Fed rewrites its so-called "framework" where they tackle big questions like if the inflation target should stay at 2%, and what it means to be at maximum or full employment. That framework will come out in a couple months, and markets will be looking for any indication from the Fed chair this week on what it might say.
Also on Wednesday, a day early because of the Juneteenth holiday, markets will be watching for the weekly jobless claims number. Although the employment report for May showed employment and job growth holding up in the aggregate, there has been some softening around the edges as we noted in our June Basis Points note published last week.
Lastly, markets will remain hyper-focused this week on developments related to tariffs, tax policy and geopolitical risk, which all point toward elevated uncertainty and potentially elevated market volatility.
So items to watch this week. The June Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. Jobless claims, also on Wednesday. And policy and geopolitical developments throughout the week.
Authors
Brent Ciliano CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Brent.Ciliano@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2650
Phillip Neuhart | SVP, Director of Market & Economic Research
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Phillip.Neuhart@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2403
Blake Taylor | VP, Market & Economic Research Analyst
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Blake.Taylor@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-7964
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About the Entities, Brands and Services Offered: First Citizens Wealth™ (FCW) is a marketing brand of First Citizens BancShares, Inc., a bank holding company. The following affiliates of First Citizens BancShares are the entities through which FCW products are offered. Brokerage products and services are offered through First Citizens Investor Services, Inc. ("FCIS"), a registered broker-dealer, Member FINRA, Opens in a new tab and SIPC, Opens in a new tab. Advisory services are offered through FCIS, First Citizens Asset Management, Inc. and SVB Wealth LLC, all SEC registered investment advisors. Certain brokerage and advisory products and services may not be available from all investment professionals, in all jurisdictions or to all investors. Insurance products and services are offered through FCIS, a licensed insurance agency. Banking, lending, trust products and services, and certain insurance products and services are offered by First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company, Member FDIC, Opens in a new tab, and an Equal Housing Lender, and SVB, a division of First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company.
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