Wealth Management Services

Making Sense: In Brief

The week ahead for markets and the economy

Monday, June 16, 2025

Blake: Last week inflation surprised to the downside, with the consumer and producer price indices coming in lower than almost all market expectations. Investors also continue to monitor the latest developments on tax and tariff policy, and we also saw the reintroduction of geopolitical risk to the outlook.

This week, the main event on investors' minds will be the June Federal Reserve meeting, wrapping up on Wednesday. Markets are not expecting any interest rate changes at this meeting, and the Federal Reserve has indicated that it's on hold as it monitors the incoming data and waits for the economic picture to become somewhat clearer.

For this month's meeting, markets will be watching two things. First, is the Fed content with the decent employment and inflation data that have come in through May? Or are policymakers putting more weight on their forecasts, which, as we'll see in their quarterly dot plot projections, might show a worsening in these data?

Second, every 5 years, the Fed rewrites its so-called "framework" where they tackle big questions like if the inflation target should stay at 2%, and what it means to be at maximum or full employment. That framework will come out in a couple months, and markets will be looking for any indication from the Fed chair this week on what it might say.

Also on Wednesday, a day early because of the Juneteenth holiday, markets will be watching for the weekly jobless claims number. Although the employment report for May showed employment and job growth holding up in the aggregate, there has been some softening around the edges as we noted in our June Basis Points note published last week.

Lastly, markets will remain hyper-focused this week on developments related to tariffs, tax policy and geopolitical risk, which all point toward elevated uncertainty and potentially elevated market volatility.

So items to watch this week. The June Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. Jobless claims, also on Wednesday. And policy and geopolitical developments throughout the week.

Authors

Brent Ciliano CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer

Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank

8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615

Brent.Ciliano@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2650

Phillip Neuhart | SVP, Director of Market & Economic Research

Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank

8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615

Phillip.Neuhart@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2403

Blake Taylor | VP, Market & Economic Research Analyst

Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank

8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615

Blake.Taylor@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-7964

Important Disclosures

This material is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be an offer, specific investment strategy, recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or insurance product, and should not be construed as legal, tax or accounting advice. Please consult with your legal or tax advisor regarding the particular facts and circumstances of your situation prior to making any financial decision. While we believe that the information presented is from reliable sources, we do not represent, warrant or guarantee that it is accurate or complete.

Your investments in securities and insurance products and services are not insured by the FDIC or any other federal government agency and may lose value.  They are not deposits or other obligations of, or guaranteed by any bank or bank affiliate and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amounts invested.

About the Entities, Brands and Services Offered: First Citizens Wealth^™ (FCW) is a marketing brand of First Citizens BancShares, Inc., a bank holding company. The following affiliates of First Citizens BancShares are the entities through which FCW products are offered. Brokerage products and services are offered through First Citizens Investor Services, Inc. ("FCIS"), a registered broker-dealer, Member FINRA, Opens in a new tab and SIPC, Opens in a new tab. Advisory services are offered through FCIS, First Citizens Asset Management, Inc. and SVB Wealth LLC, all SEC-registered investment advisors. Certain brokerage and advisory products and services may not be available from all investment professionals, in all jurisdictions or to all investors. Insurance products and services are offered through FCIS, a licensed insurance agency. Banking, lending, trust products and services, and certain insurance products and services are offered by First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company, Member FDIC, Opens in a new tab, and an Equal Housing Lender, and SVB, a division of First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company.

FirstCitizens.com/Wealth/Disclosures, Opens in a new tab