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As of the end of the September quarter, the S&P 500 price index was up almost 19% year-to-date. While impressive, it is the result of calendar timing following the substantial decline last December. The trailing twelve-month price return is 2%. The sideways move in the market is consistent with the sideways move in earnings per share (EPS) since the June quarter 2018.
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The record U.S. expansion continued its advance in the just-completed quarter, although economic growth does appear to be weakening more than what was expected just a few months ago. A key risk to the outlook in our view, is that the slump we are seeing in the manufacturing sector spills over to the consumer.
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As the list of investor concerns seems to grow longer by the week. From tensions in the Middle East to the unstable UK Brexit agreement, while adding an impeachment inquiry to the list. Economic growth is slowing both in the U.S. and abroad, but the market has generally been adept at shrugging off macro concerns.
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Big Tech appears on a collision course toward the most intense regulatory scrutiny that the industry has seen in more than a decade. We dive into the potential impact to investors.
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The legendary investor Martin Zweig is credited with coining the phrase "Don't fight the Fed." It states that the stock market and short-term interest rates are inversely related.
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Periods of market volatility offer an opportunity for introspection, and can be a catalyst for a review of your goals and desired outcomes.
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The first use of the phrase “Goldilocks economy” is widely credited to David Shulman, a former Solomon Brothers strategist who used it to describe the U.S. economy in 1992. The characterization borrows a line from the popular children’s story, Goldilocks and the Three Bears, describing an economy that is neither “too hot” nor “too cold”, exhibiting periods of stable growth, modest inflation, and a low unemployment rate.
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Markets will be listening keenly to commentary from the Federal Reserve and the Federal Open Market Committee to determine the direction of interest rates for 2019.
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As we move deeper into this long expansion, each economic data point is being scrutinized for signs of deterioration. We expect to hit cyclical highs in areas such as manufacturing and employment at some point next year, but we have yet to see evidence of that in 2018.
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As we move into the final quarter of 2018, the landscape is dotted with both opportunities and challenges, created by a combination of Federal Reserve policy, the Trump Administration, and frankly, time.
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