As we entered the second half of 2018, markets appeared to be hitting an inflection point. On one hand, economic data remained robust, with the consumer fully engaged, wages growing at a modest pace, industrial production steady, and the corporate tax cut creating the opportunity for meaningful investment.

By using a disciplined business cycle approach, investors can identify key phases in the economy to achieve active returns from sector allocation.

The U.S. economy remains strong, and there is evidence that the full benefit of last year’s corporate tax cut has not yet been felt. Indications are for continued economic growth in the back half of the year, but a strong U.S. dollar could be a headwind for certain parts of the economy.

One of the most challenging aspects of evaluating opportunities at this point in the market cycle is the tendency of the market to be rather binary in its assessments.

As the first quarter closed, equity and bond markets were searching for direction following the losses posted in the back half of the quarter after an exemplary January.

As market strategists and pundits attempt to predict the end of this economic cycle, a commonly mentioned indicator is the term spread of U.S. Treasuries – or the difference between short-term yields and long-term yields.

As the second longest economic expansion on record in the United States entered another year, questions around potential catalysts for greater gains arose. With economic data still solid, and the effects of the corporate tax cut not yet fully felt, the case for equities remains intact.

A strong U.S. economy, continued global growth improvement, a concerted effort by global central banks to remain accommodative as long as possible, and a general sense of complacency about valuations in the equity markets provided the backdrop for 2017’s wins.

As January began, it was clear that 2017 was going to be a tough act to follow for investors. It was a year marked by historically low volatility, essentially unchanged Treasury yields, and a straight up trajectory for equity markets, and as such, it seemed unlikely for this Goldilocks scenario to repeat itself again in 2018.

If there is one thing that all investors can agree on from the first quarter of 2018, it is that volatility in the markets is most certainly back. But what does that mean, and why is it such a critical data point for market participants?