Brent Ciliano, First Citizens Chief Investment Officer, and Phillip Neuhart, First Citizens Director of Market and Economic Research, provide timely insights and in-depth commentaries on the issues impacting the economy and the markets.
Making Sense: In Brief video
Making Sense: In Brief
The week ahead for markets and the economy
Monday, June 23, 2025
Phil: Last week, markets digested news flow out of the Middle East and the Federal Reserve's decision to keep the overnight rate unchanged.
In the week ahead, investors will remain focused on headlines, whether that be news on the Israel-Iran conflict or updates on potential US trade deals—not to mention tax legislation working its way through Congress and a number of Fed policymaker's speeches.
In the hard data, investors will be closely watching Friday's May personal income and spending report. Both income and spending are expected to grow modestly. Importantly, this report contains the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the PCE deflator. And in last week's updated projections, Fed policymakers revised up their inflation forecasts for this year, signaling greater uncertainty around the inflation outlook.
May's Consumer Price Index was below expectations—does this week's data follow suit? Consensus expects the core PCE deflator to rise 2.6% year over year.
Earlier in the week, the housing market will be in focus. May existing home sales on Monday, the April Case-Shiller home price index on Tuesday and May's new home sales report on Wednesday. Just last week, May housing starts disappointed to the downside. Does this week's data show any signs of improvement?
So items to watch this week. One, geopolitical headlines. Two, personal income and spending. Three, housing data.
Authors
Brent Ciliano CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Brent.Ciliano@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2650
Phillip Neuhart | SVP, Director of Market & Economic Research
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Phillip.Neuhart@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2403
Blake Taylor | VP, Market & Economic Research Analyst
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Blake.Taylor@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-7964
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