As we move into the final quarter of 2018, the landscape is dotted with both opportunities and challenges, created by a combination of Federal Reserve policy, the Trump Administration, and frankly, time.

By using a disciplined business cycle approach, investors can identify key phases in the economy to achieve active returns from sector allocation.

One of the most challenging aspects of evaluating opportunities at this point in the market cycle is the tendency of the market to be rather binary in its assessments.

As market strategists and pundits attempt to predict the end of this economic cycle, a commonly mentioned indicator is the term spread of U.S. Treasuries – or the difference between short-term yields and long-term yields.

A strong U.S. economy, continued global growth improvement, a concerted effort by global central banks to remain accommodative as long as possible, and a general sense of complacency about valuations in the equity markets provided the backdrop for 2017’s wins.

If there is one thing that all investors can agree on from the first quarter of 2018, it is that volatility in the markets is most certainly back. But what does that mean, and why is it such a critical data point for market participants?

While the 24-hour news cycle careened from one potential political crisis to the next, from North Korea, to the Affordable Care Act repeal, to Supreme Court changes, and finally to tax reform, volatility in the equity markets remained subdued, and the pace of the upward climb continued throughout 2017...

As 2017 closed, it has become clear that the "animal spirits" that guide the markets can shake off natural disasters, populist uprisings, a nuclear threat, and an ongoing stream of fodder for what once would have been Presidential scandals, but now pass for business as usual in the Trump Administration...

With the failure of Congressional Republicans to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, tax reform is now thrust to the front of the line as the White House and Congressional Republicans look for their first major legislative policy win.

Many U.S. based investors largely invest in domestic companies and institutions, whether through equity investments in U.S. companies, the purchase of debt issued by those same companies, or debt issued by state and federal governments. However, ignoring the myriad opportunities available outside the United States can potentially hinder performance in the long term.