After a strong summer recovery in both consumer spending and manufacturing output, a second surge of Covid-19 has taken hold in the U.S. and Europe, putting the global economic recovery in jeopardy as the calendar turns to 2021.

Despite having its challenges, 2019 was extremely kind to equity investors. When we take a step back and think about the year, it is a stern reminder not to get caught up in the over-sensationalized media and concentrate on company and industry specific fundamentals.

For the last year, the two headed monster of Fed policy and Chinese trade tensions have captivated the markets. As we look ahead to the remainder of the year, where's the opportunity?

The U.S. is officially in its longest expansion on record, breaking the previous record of 120 months that ended in March 2001. While it is the longest, it is also one of the weakest.

2019 has given (almost) all investors a reason to smile – but can it continue?

Solid US economic data and recent positive China Purchasing Managers Index keep us optimistic US Equities will trend higher, albeit at lower annualized returns than the past decade. Within equity sectors, we are most bullish on technology and healthcare. We believe communication services, financials, and REITs are the least attractive sectors.

Earnings growth slows dramatically, margin pressures build, tighter monetary policy and sector and stock selection will continue to focus on industries and companies that should perform well late in this cycle.

As we move into the final quarter of 2018, the landscape is dotted with both opportunities and challenges, created by a combination of Federal Reserve policy, the Trump Administration, and frankly, time.

By using a disciplined business cycle approach, investors can identify key phases in the economy to achieve active returns from sector allocation.

As Congress prepares for its August recess and looks ahead to midterm elections, a great nervousness prevails over both Republicans and Democrats on the outcome of the election.