The first use of the phrase “Goldilocks economy” is widely credited to David Shulman, a former Solomon Brothers strategist who used it to describe the U.S. economy in 1992. The characterization borrows a line from the popular children’s story, Goldilocks and the Three Bears, describing an economy that is neither “too hot” nor “too cold”, exhibiting periods of stable growth, modest inflation, and a low unemployment rate.

2019 has given (almost) all investors a reason to smile – but can it continue?

Solid US economic data and recent positive China Purchasing Managers Index keep us optimistic US Equities will trend higher, albeit at lower annualized returns than the past decade. Within equity sectors, we are most bullish on technology and healthcare. We believe communication services, financials, and REITs are the least attractive sectors.

The Federal Reserve’s policy intentions sparked a dramatic first quarter rally in risk assets, municipal bonds continued their strong performance, but relative value has diminished versus other fixed income asset classes. We have a modestly positive view for the remainder of 2019, yet it is a good time to reduce risk where appropriate.

While the effects of a trade war can be hard to predict, business owners managing their cash flow do have options. Working with trusted financial partners while watching what competitors do may provide a path for successfully navigating tariffs.

Markets will be listening keenly to commentary from the Federal Reserve and the Federal Open Market Committee to determine the direction of interest rates for 2019.

As we sit here today, the government shutdown has reached its 32nd day. Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan to negotiate a withdrawal from the European Union was met with memorable defeat. And China’s economy is showing evidence of deceleration against the backdrop of tariffs.

Earnings growth slows dramatically, margin pressures build, tighter monetary policy and sector and stock selection will continue to focus on industries and companies that should perform well late in this cycle.

A review of expectations for global economic growth, policy and market opportunity in 2019.