The Federal Reserve’s policy intentions sparked a dramatic first quarter rally in risk assets, municipal bonds continued their strong performance, but relative value has diminished versus other fixed income asset classes. We have a modestly positive view for the remainder of 2019, yet it is a good time to reduce risk where appropriate.

As we sit here today, the government shutdown has reached its 32nd day. Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan to negotiate a withdrawal from the European Union was met with memorable defeat. And China’s economy is showing evidence of deceleration against the backdrop of tariffs.

While last Monday may have marked the last gasp of 2018, the volatility which dominated the fourth quarter has continued into 2019. Admittedly, investors were likely expecting the equity markets to continue to exhibit sharp movements, especially in response to significant news, but last week brought about a confluence of events which demanded attention.

In a quarter where a “risk-on” mentality generally prevailed, the third quarter saw U.S. stocks gain, Treasury yields rise, and credit spreads tighten. For their part, U.S. Treasury investors looked past threats of tariffs and trade wars to an economy that is still strong by all accounts.

The challenge for investors, and for us as advisors, is to balance the need for a long term, goals-based perspective and approach with the reality that markets are constantly moving and adjusting, creating new risk/reward tradeoffs, and frankly, challenges for us in meeting those objectives.

As we move deeper into this long expansion, each economic data point is being scrutinized for signs of deterioration. We expect to hit cyclical highs in areas such as manufacturing and employment at some point next year, but we have yet to see evidence of that in 2018.

As we move into the final quarter of 2018, the landscape is dotted with both opportunities and challenges, created by a combination of Federal Reserve policy, the Trump Administration, and frankly, time.