As we move into the final quarter of 2018, the landscape is dotted with both opportunities and challenges, created by a combination of Federal Reserve policy, the Trump Administration, and frankly, time.

By using a disciplined business cycle approach, investors can identify key phases in the economy to achieve active returns from sector allocation.

One of the most challenging aspects of evaluating opportunities at this point in the market cycle is the tendency of the market to be rather binary in its assessments.

As market strategists and pundits attempt to predict the end of this economic cycle, a commonly mentioned indicator is the term spread of U.S. Treasuries – or the difference between short-term yields and long-term yields.

A strong U.S. economy, continued global growth improvement, a concerted effort by global central banks to remain accommodative as long as possible, and a general sense of complacency about valuations in the equity markets provided the backdrop for 2017’s wins.

If there is one thing that all investors can agree on from the first quarter of 2018, it is that volatility in the markets is most certainly back. But what does that mean, and why is it such a critical data point for market participants?